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借鉴香港的房地产泡沫经验

发表时间:2011/3/31字号:T|T
Televisionsherebroadcastscenesofcrowdsjostlingtobuyapartmentsinvastresidentialcomplexes.Developerscompetetopayhugesumsfornewlyreleasedplotsofland.TheserecentdevelopmentsarefamiliarsignalsinHongKong,th...
      Televisions here broadcast scenes of crowds jostling to buy apartments in vast residential complexes. Developers compete to pay huge sums for newly released plots of land. These recent developments are familiar signals in Hong Kong, this land of bubbles where property prices expand and contract with astonishing speed and frequency.
      电视报道中人们正在大量住宅小区中疯抢房屋。开发商们竞相为近期拍卖的小块土地支付巨额资金。这是香港近期房市中的常见情景。房地产价格与签约量以惊人的速度和频率不断上涨,已使香港成为泡沫乐园。
 
      Yet here is one interesting point about Hong Kong's turbulent property prices: They inflict remarkably little damage on the city's financial system.
      然而有意思的是:香港令人咋舌的高房价对这个城市的金融系统造成的损害甚微。
 
      During the whole period from mid-1997 to 2003, when home prices fell by two-thirds, the available data show that no more than about 1.4% of all mortgage borrowers here fell delinquent on their payments by three months or more. By comparison, U.S. home prices are down about 30% from their mid-2006 peak by some measures, but 5.3% of homeowners are behind 90 days or more on payments and 13.6% are behind at least 30 days or in foreclosure, according to LPS Applied Analytics.
      自1997年年中至2003年,香港的房价下跌了三分之二。可获得的数据显示在此期间,所有的住房抵押贷款人中只有不超过约1.4%的人曾拖欠月供达三个月或以上时间。相比之下,据LPS Applied Analytics公司数据显示,美国的住宅价格从2006年年中的峰值至今下跌了约30%,但5.3%的买房人拖欠月供达三个月或以上,13.6%的人至少拖欠了30天或已丧失赎回权。
 
      That discrepancy holds lessons for Western banking regulators looking for ways to prevent catastrophes on the scale of the recent global credit crisis, which began, as so many financial crises do, in the property market.
      最近的全球信贷危机和许多金融危机一样始于房地产市场。对于正在寻找办法以防像此次全球性危机一样的大灾难重演的西方银行业监管者而言,这一差异包含着他们可资借鉴之处。
 
      When it comes to regulation, 'if you get the property side right, you will protect the financial system to a very large extent,' says Leo Goodstadt, a former top policy adviser to the Hong Kong government who lectures at Trinity College, Dublin.
      香港政府前高级政策顾问顾汝德(Leo Goodstadt)在都柏林圣三一学院(Trinity College, Dublin)访问时发表了演讲,他说,对于监管机构而言,如果在房地产方面做好了,将在很大程度上保护其金融系统。
 
 
      Here are things that Hong Kong does right when it comes to regulating its banks' exposure to property:
      香港在对银行在房地产业中的风险进行管理时采取的正确措施包括:
 
      -- Loan-to-value ratios.  贷款与价值比率。
      Rules that limit the amount a bank can lend to no more than 70% of a property's assessed value. For homes valued at about $2.6 million or more, the ratio drops to 60%.
      This is the No. 1 factor protecting Hong Kong banks from problems in the property sector. It means home prices have to fall as much as 30% before borrowers are 'underwater,' when the value of the home falls below the value of the loan, giving banks a substantial cushion.
      And psychologically, a borrower that already has invested that much money in a property is less likely to walk away from an investment that is underwater.
'That's what's kept the blood off the streets, really, that relatively reduced leverage,' says Simon Reid-Kay, a lawyer who heads Allen & Overy's real-estate practice for Asia Pacific.
      该规定对银行发放的贷款金额进行了限制──贷款额不得超过房地产估值的70%;对于价值约260万美元或以上的房屋,这一比率下降到60%。
      这是保护香港的银行免受房地产行业问题影响的首要因素。它意味着在贷款人由于房屋的价值跌破贷款价值而出现“负资产”之前,房屋价格必须下跌高达30%。此举给银行一个实质性的缓冲空间。
而且就其心理而言,一位已经在一处房产上投资了这么多钱的贷款人不太可能就此放弃一项已经缩水的投资。
      安理国际律师事务所(Allen & Overy)亚太地区房地产业务负责人雷德凯(Simon Reid-Kay)说,这就是避免市场中血流成河的办法,真的,它相对而言降低了杠杆。
 
      -- No nonrecourse lending.  不发放无追索权贷款。
      As in many other parts of the world, a homeowner who defaults on a mortgage loan in Hong Kong doesn't just risk losing the home; the borrower's bank savings and other assets are fair game, too. By contrast, in much of the U.S. nonrecourse loans -- in which the lender's recovery is limited to the collateral, typically the property -- prevail, making it easier for a person to walk away from a home.
      和世界许多其它地方一样,贷款买房者在香港出现房贷违约现象时不仅面临失去其房屋的风险,还有可能失去其银行存款和其它资产。与之相反,在美国的多数无追索权贷款中,贷方可收回之物仅限于担保物,通常是抵押的房产。这一贷款方式的流行,使买房人更易于一走了之。
 
      -- No (or very little) funny stuff.  没有(或极少)欺诈的成份。
      In Hong Kong, borrowers can't state what their income is, or the value of their assets, without providing documentation. Banks regularly check this information before they approve a loan.
      Low- or no-documention loans in the U.S. that allowed people to obtain mortgages without proof of assets or income were one reason that subprime-loan quality went so sour, setting off the credit crisis.
      Hong Kong isn't perfect, though. In some cases, property developers have extended loans that 'top up' the funds home buyers get from banks, allowing a buyer to borrow as much as 90% of a home's value, but the practice is limited.
      在香港,贷款人声明其收入或其资产价值时必须提供证明文件。银行在批准贷款之前会定期检查这些信息。
      美国对证明文件要求很低或无需证明文件的贷款允许买房人在没有资产或收入证明的情况下获得贷款。这是次贷质量如此恶劣并引发信贷危机的原因之一。
      但香港并不完美。一些案例中,房地产开发商扩大了买房者可从银行得到资金的贷款基数,使买房者能够得到高达房屋价值90%的贷款,但这一做法并不普遍。
 
      -- Willingness to target bubbles.  防控泡沫的意愿。
     
While former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan argued that it wasn't the Fed's job to predict asset bubbles, Hong Kong central bankers don't hold such ideological qualms.
      尽管美联储前主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)称预测资产泡沫并不是美联储的工作,但香港的央行并没有这种思想负担。
 
 
      When property prices heat up, they change the rules: restricting loan-to-value ratios or raising the tax on home sales as they recently did with more expensive properties.
      当房地产价值过热时,他们改变规定:限制贷款与价值比率或提高房屋销售税率,他们近期已对更昂贵的房地产采取了这些措施。
 
      Within Hong Kong, officials come under frequent attack for not doing enough to target bubbles and make home prices more affordable. The current environment is no exception.   And it is clear that Hong Kong's efforts actually haven't prevented bubbles from occurring, a tall order in an economy where the value of the local currency is tied to the U.S. dollar.
      在香港,官员经常受到攻击,称其在控制泡沫并使房价更为合理方面做得不够。现在的情况也不例外,并且显然香港的种种努力实际上并未防止泡沫的发生。在香港这个当地货币价值与美元挂钩的经济体中,这种要求是一种苛求。
 
      When U.S. interest rates are low, Hong Kong's are also, even when the local economy is expanding or inflation is on the rise.
      美国利率低时,即使当时香港经济正在增长或通胀正在增加,香港的利率也要与美国同步。
 
      Under those circumstances, says Mr. Goodstadt, 'the best thing is to make sure if there is a bubble, the only people that get hurt are the speculators, not the banking system.'
      顾汝德说,在这种情况下,最佳做法是确保在出现泡沫时,只有投机者受到伤害,银行系统不会受到伤害。
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